1 October 2019
Topic: Test Run - Estimation Workshop
Presenter: Joseph Pelrine
Improving Estimation Quality with Psychology and Psychometrics
Estimating is difficult. So difficult, in fact, that many consider it a waste of the time invested. Which it wouldn’t be if estimates were done efficiently and were accurate.
How can you and your team make your estimates better? Software developers learn to optimise their systems using performance profiling. We can find scientifically validated and useful tools for profiling the estimation process if we take the novel and radical approach of viewing estimation from the perspective of psychometrics.
In this session, we approach the concept of an estimate as a latent construct and explore the application of tools and techniques from psychology and psychological statistics to the analysis and improvement of the estimation process. These range from tools to expose and reduce cognitive bias, such as reference class forecasting and cognitive load reduction, to psychometric tools such as intra-class correlation coefficients that analyse inter-rater reliability.
For this hands-on session, participants are encouraged to bring a laptop and statistical software (R, Python, SPSS, or even Excel) to work through the techniques themselves.
If you’re wondering why your team’s estimates are off, and what you can do to improve them, this talk is for you.
About Joseph Pelrine
As Kent Beck’s assistant, Joseph Pelrine was one of the first in the world to work with eXtreme Programming. As Europe’s first Certified ScrumMaster and trainer, he played a large role in introducing Scrum to Europe. For almost 25 years, Joseph has been defining and refining processes to help some of the world’s most well-known companies improve their ability to satisfy the needs of their customers. As a psychologist, his focus on people and his experience in applying leading-edge techniques from social complexity and psychology to process optimisation goes far beyond the domain of software development and extends to the whole organisation. In addition to his day job advising CTO/CIO/CDOs and providing supervision to coaches, he conducts research in novel applications of psychology to agile processes, and in his free time is trying to finish his PhD in psychology and psycholinguistics.